斧頭落下一刻，它比想像中還要鋒利。自從上月重慶市委書記薄熙來突如其來地被免職，各種傳聞就一直圍繞在薄家據稱的不法行為上。4月10日，政府終於打破了沉默，它指控薄熙來有“嚴重”不法行為，儘管依舊所指不明。更令人震驚的是，它將薄熙來的妻子稱為謀殺一名英國商人的嫌疑人。中國最有前途的政治人物之一的薄熙來，政治生涯看起來是完結了，而中國未來的政治動盪風險卻沒有。
薄熙來事件製造了自1989年的天安門事件以來最具破壞性的黨的領導班子的撕裂。有斷言指薄熙來及其妻子將招致其他領導人對其野心和民粹主義的忿恨，因此他們早想伺機將其拉下馬。政府的公告宣佈薄熙來被停止其政治局和中央委員會委員身份，并表示黨將調查他的“違紀”嫌疑。
天安門事件以來，共產黨曾將另外兩名原任政治局委員的政治人物下獄：一個是在1998年，另一個是在此10年之後，兩人都以腐敗入罪。但薄熙來有著甚高形象、魅力、支持度（尤其是在重慶）、家族勢力（他的父親是一位卓著的革命黨人）以及強有力的盟友。這也就是這場鬥爭如此地不同凡響的原因。甚至在3月15日他被免除重慶的職務之後，還有不少人相信薄熙來會保有在政治局的一席之地，直到今年底最高領導層重新洗牌之後，甚至可能更久。共產黨保持沉默了整整四周，而未對薄熙來的解職作出任何解釋，這表明領導人也對如何處置薄熙來有所分歧。
是否會對薄熙來本人做犯罪指控仍有懸念，但政府表示，薄熙來的妻子谷開來和一名薄家勤務人員張曉軍，已作為英國商人尼爾·伍德被殺案的犯罪嫌疑人被拘留，尼爾·伍德去年11月死於重慶。政府聲言，谷開來和她的兒子薄瓜瓜與尼爾·伍德曾“關係良好”，但因未指明的“經濟利益”關係破裂。薄瓜瓜現就讀于哈佛大學，這是醜聞爆發伊始，中國網民帶著驚異和調侃挖出的薄家優越生活的細節之一。（這個24歲的年輕人還開著法拉利在北京城里呼嘯而過。）
尼爾·伍德之死與薄家言之鑿鑿的關係三月底就在外媒上浮出水面了，現在可以明確的是，曾任重慶副市長和警察局長的王立軍，在2月6日逃往成都美國大使館時就對此有所懷疑。在長達30個小時的在大使館的時間里，王立軍告訴美國人，在他對薄表明他懷疑其家人與尼爾·伍德的死有所牽連后，他即被撤掉了警察局長的職務，而現在他為自己的性命擔憂。儘管王立軍試圖獲得美國的保護，但他被明白告知，無論是去往美國的通道和可能的避難都與此事無涉。在整場風波中保住了自己的職位的重慶市長黃奇帆，被允許進入大使館與王立軍進行了一次私密的會談，王立軍隨後自己走出了大使館并受到拘禁。
王立軍逃向外國代表的行為對於有著像他這樣的名聲（作為對抗黑惡勢力的戰士）和級別（等同于副省級政府官員）的人來說是荒天下之大謬。這場鬧劇促使北京親自調查此事。一些分析家懷疑，如果不存在其他情勢的逼迫，王立軍怎會膽敢將尼爾·伍德的死與薄熙來聯繫在一起。另一方面，當局對這起命案（重慶警方最初將其歸咎于飲酒過量）異乎尋常的處理方式，或許，某些人說，是高層鬥爭的一個信號。
薄熙來的對手們（據推測由主席胡錦濤和總理溫家寶領導）通過如此徹底地翦除薄熙來，表現出了超乎預期的強硬。但他們的戰役還沒有打完，薄熙來十分受中國政治中的“新左派”勢力的愛戴，他們尤其讚賞他對公共福利，尤其是保障性住房，上的巨大投入，以及他對國有企業的偏愛。在4月3日，溫家寶異乎尋常地表達了他對國家在金融系統上的管控的憂慮，他指出國有銀行的“壟斷”地位必須被打破。然而，前進的道路將是曲折的，儘管左派因薄熙來倒臺的結局遭到重創，但強有力的利益團體，尤其是國家企業，仍將構成阻礙。溫家寶一再呼籲的政治改革，甚至更難以在未來的幾個月有所進展了，官方對任何今年領導變更前可能影響穩定的調整都避之不及。
在重慶，遺留的殘局有待清理。薄熙來的打黑運動，雖然被普通中國民眾交口稱讚，卻在私營商人中引起了疑慮。他們認為薄熙來是在尋釁掠奪他們的財產，以將之投放于更多的公共開支。現在重慶政府手中的一項資產是一個占地20公頃的別墅區和高爾夫球場開發項目，它帶有的一個希爾頓酒店已經幾近完工。它的前所有者（也是位於重慶中心城區的另一個希爾頓酒店的所有者）彭治民，去年因多項犯罪被判終身監禁，其中包括行賄和組織賣淫。目前還不清楚政府將如何處置這筆沒收的龐大財富。
讓薄熙來的敵人們感到放心的是，薄熙來的去職並未激起公眾的反作用。在4月10日和11日，數百名防暴警察被部署以制止市民為抗議重慶的兩個區合併而發生的暴力示威，但這場騷動似乎與薄熙來的離去無關。一名重慶律師說，上個月有兩位老人為表達對薄熙來的支持拉起標語，隨即被警方帶走（之後釋放）。在4月6日，北京當局關閉了數個曾發佈支持薄熙來的文章的左傾網站。
在一篇對薄熙來事件的評論中，共產黨的主要喉舌《人民日報》以舊日的列寧主義口吻，呼籲民眾與共產黨和胡錦濤保持“高度一致”。針對薄熙來的批評曾多次指責他試圖毀掉所有反對他的人，然而那些現在在鬥爭中占得上風的人似乎也不會對異議有所容忍。
Shattering the façade
Apr 14th 2012 | BEIJING AND CHONGQING | from the print edition
WHEN the axe fell, it was sharper than expected. Ever since the unexplained dismissal last month of the Communist Party chief of Chongqing, Bo Xilai, rumours had swirled about his family’s alleged wrongdoings. On April 10th the government broke its silence, accusing Mr Bo of “serious”, though still unspecified, wrongdoing and, more startling, making Mr Bo’s wife a suspect in the murder of a British businessman. The political career of Mr Bo, one of China’s most prominent politicians, appears to be over. The risk of further political turbulence in China is not.
Mr Bo’s case has created the most damaging split in the party leadership since the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989. The allegations against him and his wife appear to have given other leaders resentful of his ambition and populist approach the pretext they had long sought to bring him down. The government’s announcement declared that Mr Bo had been suspended from his membership of the ruling Politburo and the party’s Central Committee. It said the party would investigate his suspected “discipline violations”.
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Since Tiananmen, the party has jailed two other politicians who had served as Politburo members: one in 1998 and the other a decade later, both on corruption charges. But Mr Bo has a high profile, charisma and popularity (especially in Chongqing) as well as family pedigree (his father was a notable revolutionary) and powerful allies. That is why this struggle was so exceptional. Even after his dismissal from his post in Chongqing on March 15th, some believed Mr Bo might retain his Politburo seat until a shuffle of the top leadership at the end of the year, or possibly longer. That the party kept silent for four weeks before delivering any explanation of Mr Bo’s sacking suggests that leaders were divided over how to handle him.
It remains unclear whether criminal proceedings will be launched against Mr Bo himself. But the government says that his wife, Gu Kailai, and a family employee, Zhang Xiaojun, have been detained for the suspected murder of Neil Heywood, a British businessman who died in Chongqing in November. Ms Gu and the Bos’ son, Bo Guagua, the government alleges, had been on “good terms” with Mr Heywood, but fell out over unspecified “economic interests”. The younger Mr Bo is studying at Harvard University, one of many details of the Bo family’s privileged lifestyle that China’s internet users have been picking over with horror and glee since the scandal first broke (the 24-year-old also chugged around Beijing in a Ferrari).
The alleged connections between Mr Heywood’s death and the Bo family surfaced in the foreign media in late March. It is now clear that Wang Lijun, once deputy mayor and police chief of Chongqing, had suspicions when he fled to the American consulate in the south-western city of Chengdu on February 6th. During his 30 hours inside the consulate, Mr Wang told the Americans that he had been dismissed as police chief after confronting Mr Bo with his suspicions of a link between his boss’s family and Mr Heywood’s death, and that he feared for his own life. Although Mr Wang sought the protection of the Americans, it was made clear to him that passage to the United States and potential asylum there were out of the question. Huang Qifan, the mayor of Chongqing, who has kept his job throughout the scandal, was allowed into the consulate for a private meeting with Mr Wang, who later walked out on his own into custody.
Mr Wang’s flight to a foreign mission was extraordinary for somebody of his celebrity (as a fighter of organised crime) and rank (equivalent to that of a deputy provincial governor). The episode spurred its own investigation by Beijing. Some analysts doubt if Mr Wang would have dared to take the issue of Mr Heywood’s death up with Mr Bo unless other circumstances had compelled him. Either way, the authorities’ unusual handling of the death (which the Chongqing police initially ascribed to overdrinking) may, some say, be a sign of high-level struggles.
Mr Bo’s opponents (presumably led by President Hu Jintao and the prime minister, Wen Jiabao) have shown unexpected strength by purging Mr Bo so thoroughly. But their battle is not over. Mr Bo was much loved by a “new left” force in Chinese politics which admired his big spending on public welfare, especially social housing, and his fondness for state-owned enterprises. On April 3rd Mr Wen expressed unusual frustration with the state’s grip on the financial system, saying the state banks were a “monopoly” that must be broken. Progress, however, will be tortuous, notwithstanding the battering the left has suffered as a result of Mr Bo’s fall. Powerful interests, especially state firms, remain an obstacle. Political reform, which Mr Wen has repeatedly called for, is even less likely to make headway in the months ahead. Officials are fearful of any adjustment that might upset stability before this year’s leadership changes.
Much mess is left to be cleared up in Chongqing. Mr Bo’s crackdown on crime, although widely admired by ordinary Chinese, created suspicions among private businesspeople. They thought that he was looking for ways to seize their assets so as to use them for more public spending. One property now in the Chongqing government’s hands is a 20-hectare (50-acre) villa and golf-course development, with a near-finished Hilton hotel. Its former owner (as well as of another Hilton in central Chongqing), Peng Zhimin, was jailed for life last year for various offences, including bribery and prostitution. It remains unclear how the government will dispose of this vast, confiscated wealth.
Mr Bo’s enemies will be relieved that, so far, his demise has not stirred a public backlash. Hundreds of riot police were deployed on April 10th-11th to put an end to violent demonstrations by citizens protesting against the merger of two Chongqing districts, but the unrest appeared to be unrelated to Mr Bo’s departure. A lawyer in Chongqing says two elderly people displayed a slogan last month expressing support for Mr Bo, but were whisked away by police (and later released). On April 6th the authorities in Beijing shut down some pro-left websites that had been publishing articles supporting him.
In a commentary on the Bo case, couched in old-time Leninist rhetoric, the party’s main mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, called on citizens to maintain a “high level of ideological unity” with the party and with Mr Hu. Mr Bo’s critics often accuse him of having tried to crush any who opposed him. Those who now have the upper hand in the struggle appear to be brooking no dissent either.
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